Thanks for your positive response to Edition 00 of Monterey Village. A few of you have asked me to divulge Sven's real name. Sorry. What happens in the blog, stays in the blog. No real names. Only real stories.
Onto the business at hand, this email I received from RL: "Dear Jeff: Enjoyed your brief history of Monterey Village. As I mentioned at your BBQ last Sunday, I'm thinking of giving up my glamorous life in Hollywood for a quiet, comfortable existence in Monterey Village. But I worry about buying a home then watching it's value decline. Historically, how have home prices held up in MV? Your friend, RL."
Well, RL, as you know, my econometric model of the real estate market in Monterey Village is one of the best in the business. Unfortunately, my super computer blew a vacuum tube. So to answer your question, I'll need to consult a less reliable source: The Los Angeles Times.
An advertisement in the October 17, 1937 edition (Footnote #1) lists the asking prices of 4 houses in the neighborhood: $4500, $6350, $6950, and $6750 (Footnote #2). The average of these four is $6137.
Now flash forward 73 years to August 29, 2009. What are those houses worth today. Zillow.com says: $680,500, $885,500, $871,500 and $938,000. Or an average price of $843,875.
That is a 13,649% total average gain! Or, looked at another way, it's a 6.37% yearly increase compounded annually for 73 years. Not bad. Especially considering my savings account is fetching about 1% right now.
Of course, any investment advisor will tell you "past performance is no guarantee of future results." In other words, despite the findings of this rigorous historical analysis, home prices could go down tomorrow. Or they could go up. Or they could stay flat.
So, in the end, I don't have any advice for you, RL. But I appreciate the opportunity to share my ignorance with you. And I hope some day, you'll give up that wild life in Hollywood. As my mother says, "You're not getting any younger."
************************
Footnotes:
1. LA Times - October 17, 1937
2. Investment Returns: Monterey Village Homes vs. Gold vs. DJIA
1937 2009 % Gain
4653 Longridge: $4500 $680,500
4624 Van Nord $6350 $885,500
4544 Mary Ellen $6950 $871,500
4641 Van Noord $6750 $938,000
Avg. Hm. Price $6137 $843,875 13,649%
Gold (per oz.) $34.79 $949 2,628%
DJIA $135.94 (11/1/37) $9,539 6,917%
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Friday, August 21, 2009
1935: Neighborhood Gets Name
Welcome to the premiere edition of Monterey Village.
Well, actually, this is the pre-premiere edition. Number zero. I didn't plan on this one. But then a neighbor, who I'll call "Sven," reviewed a draft of issue #1 and he couldn't get past the title.
"Monterey Village?" he said. "Why are you writing a blog about Northern California?"
I explained that--while not well known--Monterey Village is right here in Southern California. In fact, Monterey Village is right under our feet: It's the original name of this place, our subdivision.
"Never heard of Monterey Village," Sven said suspiciously.
I showed him this articles from the L.A. Times.
September 29, 1935 - LA Times
I explained that most of the sidewalks in our neighborhood were laid in 1929. But the stock market crash in October of that year, put a damper on the housing market. So it wasn't until six years later, in 1935, that J. Leslie Dandy began promoting the area.
I further explained that in 2008, I had talked with Dandy's son, James Fenton Dandy. He told me his father was an enthusiastic entrepreneur who was born in upstate New York in 1889. His dad served in the army during WWI but was never sent abroad.
In the 1920 Census, Dandy lists his occupation as manager of an automobile dealership. His son told me his father owned a Buick Essex dealership. What that meant was "you'd buy one car, drive it around until a farmer bought it from you. Then you'd buy another car and start all over," he told me.
Dandy joined the Florida Real Estate Boom of the 1920's, raising money to build a canal that would supply water to a new development. Unfortunately, that dream came to an end with the Florida Real Estate Crash of 1926-28. So Dandy moved his family west to Southern California and started over. Eventually, he came to promote this area where we live. This area he named Monterey Village.
Sven said that was a fascinating story...but he still didn't like the name.
Well, you can't please everybody. But you can put them to sleep if your blog is too long. So I'm stopping here. Next time: 1935 Home Prices in Monterey Village.
October 27, 1935 - LA Times
Well, actually, this is the pre-premiere edition. Number zero. I didn't plan on this one. But then a neighbor, who I'll call "Sven," reviewed a draft of issue #1 and he couldn't get past the title.
"Monterey Village?" he said. "Why are you writing a blog about Northern California?"
I explained that--while not well known--Monterey Village is right here in Southern California. In fact, Monterey Village is right under our feet: It's the original name of this place, our subdivision.
"Never heard of Monterey Village," Sven said suspiciously.
I showed him this articles from the L.A. Times.
September 29, 1935 - LA Times
I explained that most of the sidewalks in our neighborhood were laid in 1929. But the stock market crash in October of that year, put a damper on the housing market. So it wasn't until six years later, in 1935, that J. Leslie Dandy began promoting the area.
I further explained that in 2008, I had talked with Dandy's son, James Fenton Dandy. He told me his father was an enthusiastic entrepreneur who was born in upstate New York in 1889. His dad served in the army during WWI but was never sent abroad.
In the 1920 Census, Dandy lists his occupation as manager of an automobile dealership. His son told me his father owned a Buick Essex dealership. What that meant was "you'd buy one car, drive it around until a farmer bought it from you. Then you'd buy another car and start all over," he told me.
Dandy joined the Florida Real Estate Boom of the 1920's, raising money to build a canal that would supply water to a new development. Unfortunately, that dream came to an end with the Florida Real Estate Crash of 1926-28. So Dandy moved his family west to Southern California and started over. Eventually, he came to promote this area where we live. This area he named Monterey Village.
Sven said that was a fascinating story...but he still didn't like the name.
Well, you can't please everybody. But you can put them to sleep if your blog is too long. So I'm stopping here. Next time: 1935 Home Prices in Monterey Village.
October 27, 1935 - LA Times
October 17, 1937 - LA Times
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